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Above-Average Hurricane Activity Expected This Season

NOAA's National Hurricane Center predicts 11-17 named tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.
NOAA
NOAA's National Hurricane Center predicts 11-17 named tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.

Hurricane season starts June 1st. In theirannual outlookreleased today, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict that the Atlantic Ocean will see "above average" hurricane activity this hurricane season, which runs through November 30th.

 Coastal Reporters Tegan Wendland and Travis Lux talk about the 2017 hurricane season forecast and one way the Army Corps protects against storm surge.

On average, there are 12 named tropical storms during hurricane season. This year, NOAA forecasters say there could could be 11-17 named storms in the Atlantic.

Forecasters consider several factors when making their predictions -- like ocean temperatures, wind shear, and the presence of weather patterns like ElNiño, which suppresses hurricane activity when present. 

NOAA administrator Ben Friedman says warm ocean temperatures and a currently weak El Niñopresence contributed to the above-average forecast. But, he says, there are limitations to any hurricane forecast.

 

“It does NOT predict when, where, and how these storms might hit,” says Friedman, “And if they will make landfall.”

 

So, while forecasts are fairly accurate at predicting the number of named storms, they can’t tell us anything about the intensity of a given storm, or how many of them will make landfall.

 

Still, Friedman says it doesn’t take much to cause damage.

 

“The most dangerous part of a storm is not the wind, is not the rain,” he says, “it’s the flooding and the storm surge that occurs afterward. So we need to be prepared for all of that in the upcoming season.”

 

For tips on how to prepare for hurricane season visitNOLA Ready.

 

Names NOAA plans to assign to tropical storms, including hurricanes, during the 2017 hurricane season. The first, Arlene, formed in April over the eastern Atlantic -- uncharacteristically early.
Credit NOAA
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NOAA
Names NOAA plans to assign to tropical storms, including hurricanes, during the 2017 hurricane season. The first, Arlene, formed in April over the eastern Atlantic -- uncharacteristically early.

Support for the Coastal Desk comes from the Walton Family Foundation, theCoypuFoundation, the Greater New Orleans Foundation, and local listeners.

Copyright 2017 WWNO - New Orleans Public Radio

Tegan Wendland is a freelance producer with a background in investigative news reporting. She currently produces the biweekly segment, Northshore Focus.
Travis Lux
Travis is WWNO's coastal reporter.